This week the press got itself into a frightful state prophesying a lifting of lockdown regulations, partly thanks to ambiguous government messaging. Prompting a display of speedy back-pedaling from Downing Street that would get the average Tour De France contestant drug tested.
Meanwhile back at the economic ranch the Bank of England let slip the prediction that the UK economy could shrink by 14% this year due to the pandemic. Anyone cynical enough to think that mixed messages have been used to partially camouflage awful news, might just be onto something.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said told the BBC on Thursday that the coming downturn would be ‘unprecedented’ and that post lockdown recover would be limited due to consumers being ‘cautious of their own choice’.
He added that they would be unlikely to ‘re-engage fully and so it is really only next Summer that activity comes fully back’.
The picture is truly bleak with two quarters of contraction putting the UK into a technical recession, in the period to June the economy, the bank predicts, will shrink by 25%. For the year as a whole it will shrink by 14%, the biggest decline since the ONS began keeping records in 1949.
The Bank of England predicts the economy could rebound by15% in 2021, but growth won’t be back to pre-virus levels until the middle of the year.
Add to that a housing market at a standstill and a 30% fall in consumer spending and it is clear that the bad times are set to roll and keep on rolling, like a pebble that causes an avalanche.
The received wisdom expounded by Andrew Bailey that any pain will be a short-term blip is comforting; but unrealistic, something he probably knows only too well.
While the graphs and spreadsheets might tell an optimistic story, human experience has something entirely different to say. Consumers aren’t going, as Mr. Bailey puts it, going to be ‘cautious’, many of them are going to be downright petrified. In a few months’ time they might be flat broke too.
The official narrative is that although alarming in the short-term the pandemic is, in historical terms, a bump in the road of little lasting consequence. I don’t buy it; and neither should anyone else.
The speed with which it has swept around the globe throwing everything we understood about life up into the air in the process makes the COVID-19 pandemic one of the fault lines in human history. It is certainly as defining a moment for the twenty-first century as the outbreak of the two world wars was for the twentieth.
How we respond to it will shape our future as a nation and as a human species for decades to come. It is as impossible to imagine to world going back to its default setting in 2021 as it would have been for it to have done so in 1919 or 1946.
Everything has changed and we need a new settlement on a national and international level in recognition of that fact.
Every country needs to have a serious political conversation about how measures such as a universal basic income can be used to create a fairer society and a more sustainable economy. Wellbeing has to be as much a measure of success as a nations GDP.
Painful as the current crisis has been for people around the world it also represents a rare opportunity to change things for the better. One that progressives in all countries must seize with both hands.
If they don’t you can be sure that the promoters of an economic system that made the world we used to know into such a divided place will. What comes about as a result may be the stuff of nightmares.
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Saturday, 9 May 2020
Saturday, 2 May 2020
People Living in Deprived Communities Could be the Hidden Victims of the Pandemic.
After weeks of gloom there may be a small glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel as the UK passes through the peak of the pandemic. As it does so data from a charity working with vulnerable families and the Office for National Statistics has revealed a shocking disparity in death rates.
The message is as stark as it is simple; if you live in a deprived community your chances of dying from COVID-19 are more than twice that of someone living in a more affluent one.
You are also far more likely to suffer hardship as a result of the pandemic, largely because your life was already blighted by poverty long before the virus arrived in the UK.
The Trussell Trust, the charity which runs the majority of the UK’s food banks, has released figures showing that demand for its services went up by 81% in the first two weeks of the pandemic.
This has been driven by the more that 1.8 million people who have applied for benefits since the beginning of the lockdown, many of whom may need help from their local food bank at some point.
The charity welcomes government interventions including the roll out of the Job Retention Scheme and extra investment in Universal Credit. Despite this, a statement on their website says, ‘there is a limit to the number of people food banks can help and it shouldn’t be left to community charities and volunteers to pick up the pieces’.
The figures on increased food bank use come at the same time as data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows COVID-19 deaths in deprived communities in England are higher than in more affluent ones.
The data covering the period from 1st March to 17th April shows there were 20,283 deaths in England related to the virus, at a rate of 36.2 per 100,000 people.
In deprived areas of England, the death rate was 55.1, compared to 25.3 in more affluent areas. London had the highest mortality rate at 85.7 with the worst hit boroughs being Newham, Brent and Hackney. In deprived areas of Wales death rates were also high at 44.6.
Nick Stripe, head of health at the ONS told Reuters ‘people in more deprived areas have experienced COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those in less deprived areas’.
Speaking to the BBC shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the figures showed that the coronavirus thrives on inequality.
Javed Khan, chief executive of children’s charity Barnardo’s, also speaking to the BBC, said the ONS figures were ‘worrying, but unfortunately not surprising’. He added that people living in deprived communities were at risk of becoming the ‘forgotten victims of the pandemic, without intervention this crisis will be devastating for a whole generation’.
Jonathan Ashworth told the BBC that ‘ministers must target health inequalities with an overarching strategy to tackle the wider social determinants of ill health’
The Trussell Trust is also calling on the government to take action on poverty and health inequalities as the pandemic shows signs of beginning to recede. They have joined a coalition of other groups including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Child Poverty Action Group and debt charity StepChange to make four key demands.
These are for an increase in the benefits paid to struggling families, and extended suspension of deductions to cover advanced payments to Universal Credit claimants, a lifting of the benefits cap and more support for local authorities as they struggle with a sharp decline in income.
Trussell Trust chief executive Emma Revie said ‘the last few weeks have shown we must come together to protect each other against the unexpected’. Adding ‘we need emergency measures to ensure people can make ends meet during this crisis’.
Alison Garnham of the Child Poverty Action Group said ‘raising the level of benefits for children would be the most effective way of getting support to families quickly’. Adding ‘it is our moral responsibility to make that investment because no child should be reliant on food packages’.
Helen Barnard of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said it was ‘vital that our social security system can act as an anchor in tough times and keep people afloat when they need it most’.
As the pandemic begins, hopefully, to recede it leaves exposed in its wake problems that have been known but ignored during a decade of austerity politics. Being poor is bad for your health and may lead to an early death.
The pandemic has focused minds of priorities rather than peripherals, at least for the short term. It is vital that politicians take this opportunity to address the inequalities that cause harm to the most vulnerable members of our society.
The message is as stark as it is simple; if you live in a deprived community your chances of dying from COVID-19 are more than twice that of someone living in a more affluent one.
You are also far more likely to suffer hardship as a result of the pandemic, largely because your life was already blighted by poverty long before the virus arrived in the UK.
The Trussell Trust, the charity which runs the majority of the UK’s food banks, has released figures showing that demand for its services went up by 81% in the first two weeks of the pandemic.
This has been driven by the more that 1.8 million people who have applied for benefits since the beginning of the lockdown, many of whom may need help from their local food bank at some point.
The charity welcomes government interventions including the roll out of the Job Retention Scheme and extra investment in Universal Credit. Despite this, a statement on their website says, ‘there is a limit to the number of people food banks can help and it shouldn’t be left to community charities and volunteers to pick up the pieces’.
The figures on increased food bank use come at the same time as data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows COVID-19 deaths in deprived communities in England are higher than in more affluent ones.
The data covering the period from 1st March to 17th April shows there were 20,283 deaths in England related to the virus, at a rate of 36.2 per 100,000 people.
In deprived areas of England, the death rate was 55.1, compared to 25.3 in more affluent areas. London had the highest mortality rate at 85.7 with the worst hit boroughs being Newham, Brent and Hackney. In deprived areas of Wales death rates were also high at 44.6.
Nick Stripe, head of health at the ONS told Reuters ‘people in more deprived areas have experienced COVID-19 mortality rates more than double those in less deprived areas’.
Speaking to the BBC shadow Health Secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the figures showed that the coronavirus thrives on inequality.
Javed Khan, chief executive of children’s charity Barnardo’s, also speaking to the BBC, said the ONS figures were ‘worrying, but unfortunately not surprising’. He added that people living in deprived communities were at risk of becoming the ‘forgotten victims of the pandemic, without intervention this crisis will be devastating for a whole generation’.
Jonathan Ashworth told the BBC that ‘ministers must target health inequalities with an overarching strategy to tackle the wider social determinants of ill health’
The Trussell Trust is also calling on the government to take action on poverty and health inequalities as the pandemic shows signs of beginning to recede. They have joined a coalition of other groups including the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Child Poverty Action Group and debt charity StepChange to make four key demands.
These are for an increase in the benefits paid to struggling families, and extended suspension of deductions to cover advanced payments to Universal Credit claimants, a lifting of the benefits cap and more support for local authorities as they struggle with a sharp decline in income.
Trussell Trust chief executive Emma Revie said ‘the last few weeks have shown we must come together to protect each other against the unexpected’. Adding ‘we need emergency measures to ensure people can make ends meet during this crisis’.
Alison Garnham of the Child Poverty Action Group said ‘raising the level of benefits for children would be the most effective way of getting support to families quickly’. Adding ‘it is our moral responsibility to make that investment because no child should be reliant on food packages’.
Helen Barnard of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said it was ‘vital that our social security system can act as an anchor in tough times and keep people afloat when they need it most’.
As the pandemic begins, hopefully, to recede it leaves exposed in its wake problems that have been known but ignored during a decade of austerity politics. Being poor is bad for your health and may lead to an early death.
The pandemic has focused minds of priorities rather than peripherals, at least for the short term. It is vital that politicians take this opportunity to address the inequalities that cause harm to the most vulnerable members of our society.
Sunday, 19 April 2020
Charity Launches Online Support Service
The changeshere4u website provides access to all the services the charity previously delivered in the community.
These include peer support groups and wellbeing training, one to one phone and video support is also available.
In an online statement Changes say existing members and anyone looking for a little extra help in these unprecedented times can 'easily access' their services using their computer, tablet or mobile phone'.
This, Changes say, will 'enable us to continue to support your wellbeing and recovery'.
Many of the courses usually delivered at the Changes Wellbeing Centre based at Victoria Court in Stoke have moved online. These include the popular Recovery, Wellbeing and Making Changes workshops.
Online peer support groups meetings take place on weekdays at 11am, 1pm and 6pm and at 1pm on Saturdays on the Zoom video conferencing platform. There is also a women only meeting held every Tuesday.
The Changes Young People service is also now operating online.
Further details about all the online services can be found by visiting:
www.changeshere4u.org.uk or by calling 07983437747
The charity would like to reassure long standing members and people new to the service that 'whatever the needs of you and your family during this difficult time, Changes is here for you'.
If you found this article helpful, please consider making a small donation to support the NHS during this national crisis.
Sunday, 12 April 2020
Corruption Under the Sun
Does murder in the Carribean make you think of Miss Marple Ricky g a nasty case of sun stroke on an island with white sandy beaches? If so the first book reviewed here might change your mind.
In Black Rain Falling ((Sphere) Jacob Ross has his protagonist Michael 'Digger'Digson investigate a case involving murder and drug smuggling on the island of Camaho, a thinly disguised Grenada. Along the way he encounters rivalries within the police, political corruption and the legacy of his own family history.
Ross also turns a pretty clear eye to wider areas of island life that the tourist brochures tend to ignore. Including endemic cronyism, poverty, the long shadow of colonialism and the cultural and personal impact of toxic masculinity. All of which is a long way way from simplistic narratives about happy islanders playing steel drums and relaxing on the beach.
Ross does so in prose that shows him to have an unerring eye for sporting the tangled mix of beauty and badness and a musicians eat for the distinctive speech of the region.
Literary crime fiction all too often hides the mediocre behind a tho veneer of pretension. Jacob Ross though is the real deal, he has delivered a novel that manages to do all the things a good piece of crime writing should, as well as having worthwhile things to say about the society it is set in. That should be more than enough to earn it and him a place in the canon of great Carribean writing.
When Angels Sleep (Piatkus), by Mark Griffin also turns over a few of the crime genres more tired tropes. The book opens with the body of a child being found neatly arranged in Epping Forest, suggesting that the capital's latest serial killer is setting out his stall. This is the second outing for forensic psychologist Holly Wakefield, a woman with almost as many dark areas in her psyche as the killers she helps the police track down.
Two things save this book from being another familiar trip down the weedy trail blazed by legions of troubled investigators. First of all Wakefield is made human and therefore likeable by her flaws. Second Griffin writes about people who kill and kill again in a determinedly realistic way.
There are no crazed geniuses of slavering monsters to be found here, his killers are, mostly, men defined by all the things they aren't. Like capable of forming a settled identity or having empathy with their fellow creatures. That makes what could have been a safety formulaic book into an often rather chilling one.
From a setting Dame Christie used to the sort of book she might have written had she been working now. The Lazarus Charter (The Conrad Press) by Tony Bassett displays, in the best possible way, many of the characteristics of a classic British B movie.
These are evident from the moment Bob Shaw encounters an old friend who is supposed to have died weeks earlier on the London Underground. An incident that involves Bob and his wife Annie in a plot concerning a secret weapons system, Russian agents trying to steal it and lengths our own intelligence services will go to to stop them. A situation they respond to with a mixture of resourcefulness and good humour that is, ahem, rather uniquely British.
The result is, this reviewer would be the first to admit, more that a little improbable; and splendid fun nevertheless. At times like these books that provide a diversion and do the important job of cheering us all up are performing a vital national service.
If you enjoyed this review please consider giving a small donation to support the NHS during this national crisis.
In Black Rain Falling ((Sphere) Jacob Ross has his protagonist Michael 'Digger'Digson investigate a case involving murder and drug smuggling on the island of Camaho, a thinly disguised Grenada. Along the way he encounters rivalries within the police, political corruption and the legacy of his own family history.
Ross also turns a pretty clear eye to wider areas of island life that the tourist brochures tend to ignore. Including endemic cronyism, poverty, the long shadow of colonialism and the cultural and personal impact of toxic masculinity. All of which is a long way way from simplistic narratives about happy islanders playing steel drums and relaxing on the beach.
Ross does so in prose that shows him to have an unerring eye for sporting the tangled mix of beauty and badness and a musicians eat for the distinctive speech of the region.
Literary crime fiction all too often hides the mediocre behind a tho veneer of pretension. Jacob Ross though is the real deal, he has delivered a novel that manages to do all the things a good piece of crime writing should, as well as having worthwhile things to say about the society it is set in. That should be more than enough to earn it and him a place in the canon of great Carribean writing.
When Angels Sleep (Piatkus), by Mark Griffin also turns over a few of the crime genres more tired tropes. The book opens with the body of a child being found neatly arranged in Epping Forest, suggesting that the capital's latest serial killer is setting out his stall. This is the second outing for forensic psychologist Holly Wakefield, a woman with almost as many dark areas in her psyche as the killers she helps the police track down.
Two things save this book from being another familiar trip down the weedy trail blazed by legions of troubled investigators. First of all Wakefield is made human and therefore likeable by her flaws. Second Griffin writes about people who kill and kill again in a determinedly realistic way.
There are no crazed geniuses of slavering monsters to be found here, his killers are, mostly, men defined by all the things they aren't. Like capable of forming a settled identity or having empathy with their fellow creatures. That makes what could have been a safety formulaic book into an often rather chilling one.
From a setting Dame Christie used to the sort of book she might have written had she been working now. The Lazarus Charter (The Conrad Press) by Tony Bassett displays, in the best possible way, many of the characteristics of a classic British B movie.
These are evident from the moment Bob Shaw encounters an old friend who is supposed to have died weeks earlier on the London Underground. An incident that involves Bob and his wife Annie in a plot concerning a secret weapons system, Russian agents trying to steal it and lengths our own intelligence services will go to to stop them. A situation they respond to with a mixture of resourcefulness and good humour that is, ahem, rather uniquely British.
The result is, this reviewer would be the first to admit, more that a little improbable; and splendid fun nevertheless. At times like these books that provide a diversion and do the important job of cheering us all up are performing a vital national service.
If you enjoyed this review please consider giving a small donation to support the NHS during this national crisis.
Friday, 10 April 2020
Charities at risk of falling victim to the pandemic
VAST, a group supporting charities in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire has warned many of the organisations it works with may be facing a struggle to survive. As a result services depended on by vulnerable people may disappear.
Nationally even large charities are facing an uncertain future, third sector news site Civil Society reported that the sector is set to lose £4.3 billion in fundraising income over the next three months.
Charities at risk include the St John's Ambulance, who have been key players in supporting the NHS as it responds to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Chief executive Martin Houghton-Brown told Civil Society that his "entire organisation is now delivering for Covid-19", by that without significant help from the government "we will run out of money".
He added this would result in trustees having to make "very difficult judgements" about the organisations future.
Other charities facing difficulty include Barnado's, who have seen their funding fall by 30%.
locally VAST has seen its income fall dramatically after lockdown restrictions forced the closure of its sites at the Dudson Centre in Janet and The Hub in Stafford.
Acting chief executive Lisa Healings said in a press statement "so many people in Stoke-on-Trent are thankful for the support they receive from local groups. The organisations we work with provide practical help, advice and in many cases, the only social contact people have".
Local charities were, she said, keen to help people during these difficult times, but few crisis in funding was forcing many to take tough decisions about their future.
On Wednesday chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a package of measures to support charities worth £750million, £370million of which will go towards supporting smaller charities.
Responses from third sector organisations have been mixed, Karl Wilding of the National Council of Voluntary Organisations welcomed the package as "an important first step", but said more support would be needed in the long term.
Other charity leaders expressed scepticism, Lynda Thomas of Macmillan Cancer Support told the BBC the funding wouldn't be enough to "prevent many of the nation's charities cutting the support they provide when it is needed most".
Barnado's chief executive, a so speaking to the BBC Javed Khan said the package was "little more than a sticking plaster".
The government's plans received qualified support from newly appointed shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds, told BBC news that while welcome the additional funding fell "short of filling the financial black hole many organisations are facing".
These are unprecedented times in which both the government and charities have had to respond to unimaginable challenges at speed. This that come afterwards and last much longer are likely to be even harder.
Charities will play a vital role in rebuilding something like normality once the pandemic is over. Without adequate support from government they will not be able to do so and many people will suffer needlessly as a result.
If you have found this article useful, please consider making a small donation to support the NHS during this national crisis.
Nationally even large charities are facing an uncertain future, third sector news site Civil Society reported that the sector is set to lose £4.3 billion in fundraising income over the next three months.
Charities at risk include the St John's Ambulance, who have been key players in supporting the NHS as it responds to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Chief executive Martin Houghton-Brown told Civil Society that his "entire organisation is now delivering for Covid-19", by that without significant help from the government "we will run out of money".
He added this would result in trustees having to make "very difficult judgements" about the organisations future.
Other charities facing difficulty include Barnado's, who have seen their funding fall by 30%.
locally VAST has seen its income fall dramatically after lockdown restrictions forced the closure of its sites at the Dudson Centre in Janet and The Hub in Stafford.
Acting chief executive Lisa Healings said in a press statement "so many people in Stoke-on-Trent are thankful for the support they receive from local groups. The organisations we work with provide practical help, advice and in many cases, the only social contact people have".
Local charities were, she said, keen to help people during these difficult times, but few crisis in funding was forcing many to take tough decisions about their future.
On Wednesday chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a package of measures to support charities worth £750million, £370million of which will go towards supporting smaller charities.
Responses from third sector organisations have been mixed, Karl Wilding of the National Council of Voluntary Organisations welcomed the package as "an important first step", but said more support would be needed in the long term.
Other charity leaders expressed scepticism, Lynda Thomas of Macmillan Cancer Support told the BBC the funding wouldn't be enough to "prevent many of the nation's charities cutting the support they provide when it is needed most".
Barnado's chief executive, a so speaking to the BBC Javed Khan said the package was "little more than a sticking plaster".
The government's plans received qualified support from newly appointed shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds, told BBC news that while welcome the additional funding fell "short of filling the financial black hole many organisations are facing".
These are unprecedented times in which both the government and charities have had to respond to unimaginable challenges at speed. This that come afterwards and last much longer are likely to be even harder.
Charities will play a vital role in rebuilding something like normality once the pandemic is over. Without adequate support from government they will not be able to do so and many people will suffer needlessly as a result.
If you have found this article useful, please consider making a small donation to support the NHS during this national crisis.
Sunday, 5 April 2020
A Poem for Our Troubled Times
Applause
That night, under cold
stars
A million hands clapped,
The rhythm of distanced
lives
Coming suddenly together,
A shrunken world
growing
Larger in that moment,
An ovation of hope
flowing
Over a lonely globe,
And, as in a child's
dream
Raising a crop of rainbows.
April 2020
Thursday, 27 February 2020
Councils Launch Air Quality Survey.
North Staffs Green Party have welcomed the launch of an air quality survey by three local council and have called for the results to be used to inform their response to climate change.
Stoke-on-Trent City Council is working with neighbouring Newcastle Borough Council and Staffordshire County Council to carry out an air quality survey.
Rising levels of air pollution nationally and internationally has been recognised as one of the most serious challenges presented by our changing environment.
Poor air quality has been linked to up to 500 deaths in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire and is connected to a range of adverse health outcomes including heart and lung diseases, it may also have an impact on mental health.
Councillor Carl Edwards, cabinet member for the environment at Stoke-on-Trent City Council said in a statement published on their website: “This is an opportunity for local residents to voice their views about air pollution and how it affects them in their community. We are keen to hear from all sections of society – residents, schools, businesses and community groups”.
He added that: “Air pollution is everyone’s responsibility and we need to know how we can help people make better choices when it comes to air quality."
North Staffs Green Party spokesperson Adam Colclough said: “We welcome the council carrying out a survey on what is one of the most important environmental issues communities and the world are facing today”.
He added that: “It is important that the findings of this survey are used to inform urgent and determined action on air pollution and that they feed into the council’s response to the wider challenge posed by climate change”.
The want to hear from residents, community groups, businesses and groups with an interest in the environment, anyone over the age of 16 can take part and the survey will run until 30th April.
The Survey can be accessed by following this link: https://www.stoke.gov.uk/news/article/567/stoke-on-trent_and_newcastle-under-lyme_launch_air_quality_survey
Stoke-on-Trent City Council is working with neighbouring Newcastle Borough Council and Staffordshire County Council to carry out an air quality survey.
Rising levels of air pollution nationally and internationally has been recognised as one of the most serious challenges presented by our changing environment.
Poor air quality has been linked to up to 500 deaths in Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire and is connected to a range of adverse health outcomes including heart and lung diseases, it may also have an impact on mental health.
Councillor Carl Edwards, cabinet member for the environment at Stoke-on-Trent City Council said in a statement published on their website: “This is an opportunity for local residents to voice their views about air pollution and how it affects them in their community. We are keen to hear from all sections of society – residents, schools, businesses and community groups”.
He added that: “Air pollution is everyone’s responsibility and we need to know how we can help people make better choices when it comes to air quality."
North Staffs Green Party spokesperson Adam Colclough said: “We welcome the council carrying out a survey on what is one of the most important environmental issues communities and the world are facing today”.
He added that: “It is important that the findings of this survey are used to inform urgent and determined action on air pollution and that they feed into the council’s response to the wider challenge posed by climate change”.
The want to hear from residents, community groups, businesses and groups with an interest in the environment, anyone over the age of 16 can take part and the survey will run until 30th April.
The Survey can be accessed by following this link: https://www.stoke.gov.uk/news/article/567/stoke-on-trent_and_newcastle-under-lyme_launch_air_quality_survey
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